Home Page
Chief's Page
News & Events
Calendar of Events
Permits & Fees
Fire Prevention
Fire Science Academy
Apparatus
Department History
In Memoriam
Photo Gallery - Historical
Photo Gallery - Group Photos
Video Gallery
Internet Links
Memorable moments...
Meltdown Contest
FAQ
Site Map
Contact Us
Ice Rescue Training
Help Wanted

2005 Meltdown Updates


 

2005 Meltdown Updates

 

Click on any of the links below for local newspaper coverage:

 

Raffle prize will go with the floe - One half of 'Meltdown' proceeds will benefit Goshen anniversary - March 28, 2005  

Goshen ice goes out and man wins contest - April 14, 2005

 

It is with sadness in my heart that I have to inform you that the 2005 Meltdown has come to an unceremonious end.  While the block and pallet held on as long as they could, a deadly combination of bright April sunshine and a brisk breeze led to their ultimate demise.  The official time, as witnessed by an old electric Westclox clock that I borrowed from my Dad was 4:47PM.  The winner is Sonny LaFond of Huntington with a winning time of 4:30PM.  Sonny had purchased the 593rd ticket and will receive a check representing the net proceeds of $373.20.

 

 

 

I happily shared the good news with Sonny last night.  From what I understand, Sonny bought his tickets from Bob Smith who is also from Huntington.  I don’t know Bob personally but according to the group of firefighters gathered last night at the Goshen firehouse, he is well known as a strong supporter of these types of events.  Bob himself, who picked up several envelopes of tickets from Francis Dresser (Goshen’s Fire Chief), purchased 7 tickets with dates that ranged from 4/1 to 4/26.  As for Sonny, he had 2 tickets with his name on them.  His second pick made him one of 49 people who had chosen 4/15.  When I asked him if there was any significance to the winning date, his response was that he knew the ice on the lake never went past 4/15.  As a bus driver for many years that would drive down South Chesterfield Road in Goshen, Sonny would always watch the condition of the lake as he passed by.

 

 

 

For those of you who have taken the time to read my updates, you know how much I love to play around with statistics.  What’s interesting to note is that Sonny’s pick (4/12 at 4:30PM) was almost exactly in the middle of everyone’s choices.  Out of a total of 952 picks, there were 462 picks before and 489 picks after the winning selection.  That puts his choice in the 49th percentile.  Brenda Lessard of Williamsburg actually came closer to the exact time of the sinking with a pick of 4/12 at 4:55pm.  But as we all know from watching the Price is Right, the winner is the person to come closest to the actual time without going over.

 

The end came quickly.  Reports from senior flag watchers indicate that the block and pallet were in place at 4:30PM.  Within 30 minutes, they were submerged into the icy darkness of the pond.  As you can see from the pictures, the contraption fell through a hole in the ice.  I suspect that any remaining ice will be gone in a couple of days.  There were many skeptics among you who felt that the size of the pallet would provide too much buoyancy for the weight of the block to overcome.  Clearly, your skepticism was unfounded.  As many pallet makers can attest to, pallets are traditionally made from green (and therefore very wet) wood.  This pallet was no different.  Trust me, it was the heaviest one I could find.

 

Having lived in Goshen with my family for the past 16 years, I can attest to the fact that only once during that span of time has the ice-out happened beyond 4/15.  The record of 4/21 was set several years ago.  In my position as organizer and promoter of this event, I was not at liberty to be that specific in my recommendation for the perfect date.  Even my own parents had dates ranging from 4/15 to 4/23.

 

I hope you enjoyed my periodic updates as much as I enjoyed offering them to you.  I had fun misrepresenting the truth on April Fool’s day.  It’s my understanding that I duped more of you than I had expected which made it that much more rewarding.

 

On behalf of Goshen’s 225th Anniversary Committee, The Hammond Acres Association and myself, I want to thank all of you that supported the 2005 Meltdown with your contributions, support and words of encouragement.  Hopefully, we’ve started something good here that will continue to grow in the years to come.

 

Now it’s time to THINK SUMMER!

 

Sunday, April 10th 2005

 

I've got some good news and some bad news.  The bad news is that anyone who chose April 10th as his or her date didn't win.  The good news is that there's still hope for the throngs of you who chose from April 11th to the 16th.

 

I tip my hat to the forecasters.  Goshen experienced two beautifully sunny days with temperatures in the 60’s this weekend.  As you can see from the attached pictures, the sun is starting to take its toll on the ice.  Take a close look at the picture entitled ‘Looking North’.  The darker shaded ice represents thin ice.  The pallet and block appear to be in a small pocket of that thinner ice.  In years past, there have been times when I’ve gone to work in the morning when the ice is covering the lake only to get home at night to open water.  The other thing I notice is that there’s a slight tilt to the pallet.  It appears that while the wood is absorbing the sun’s heat, which in turn is melting the ice around the perimeter of the pallet, the ice below it is being shaded and isn’t melting at the same rate.  In the picture titled ‘Looking West’, you’ll notice that the channel I mentioned before has gotten more pronounced.

 

 

 

 

Now for the rest of the story…

 

While the daytime temps have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal lately, the forecast is calling for temperatures that are 10 to 15 degrees below average over the coming week.  Last night, we saw a low temperature of 28 degrees Fahrenheit.  The forecast for the next 7 days call for temperatures that don’t climb over 50 degrees and temperatures that are below freezing at night.  There is water between the shoreline and the ice floe.  What I will be watching for over the next 2 days is the impact the forecasted wind will have on that ice floe.  Remember, if the wind blows the ice far enough away from the dam to cause the rope to become taught and pull the extension out of the socket, the contest is over.  Almost a third of you have chosen a time over the next week.  How astute of you.

 

Ticket sales are now final.  I did receive several envelopes in the mail with postmarks in March.  One envelope took a little bit longer to get to me than the others because of an incorrect mailing address.  Remember when I told you that my initial goal was 930 tickets?  Well, we beat that and then some.  The final tally now stands at 952 tickets!  Thanks to all of you for a successful contest.

 

I’ve updated the statistics to include the 42 additional tickets that came in earlier this week:

  • As of April 10th, 40% or 382 picks have passed.  That leaves 60% or 570 picks still in the running.
  • Of the 952 tickets submitted, 510 are from men while 442 are from women – a ratio of 54% to 46%.
  • The ratio of AM to PM picks finished at 24% / 76% respectively.  The ratio of morning to evening picks between men and women remained statistically identical – they actually got closer to the total picks when you extend out the decimal places.
  • April 15th remains the top choice with 49 picks.  April 12th moved into second place with 48 picks while April 10th drops to third place with 45 picks.   April 13th finishes in fourth place with 43 picks.
  • 3pm remained the favorite time with 67 picks.  2pm finished in second place with 47 picks while 1pm is comes in third place with 32 picks.
  • There are 146 picks between 2:01PM and 2:59pm, 100 picks between 3:01PM and 3:59PM, 78 picks between 1:01PM and 1:59PM and 54 picks between 4:01PM and 4:59PM.  The winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over.
  • There is a 26% chance that you’ll be sharing your winnings with someone.  There are 70 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time; 30 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time; 3 times when 4 people have chosen the same date and time and 1 time when 6 people will share the prize if they win.  The most popular combination is April 15th at 2pm.
  • The 952 picks came from people in 59 cities or towns in 12 states and 2 countries (U.S. and India).  I think I made a mistake in my last count of cities and towns.  Last time I said there were 43 cities and towns.  Sorry for the error.  I hope you’ll forgive me.

Finally, I have double-checked the rope, the clock and the power to the gatehouse.  All appear to be in working order.  Now we just hurry up and wait for Mother Nature to do her thing.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Friday, April 8th, 2005

 

Things are starting to get very interesting in the hilltowns of the Berkshires...

 

From the attached pictures you can see two developments in the condition of the ice which could have a direct impact on the outcome of this contest.  Notice that a puddle has formed around the base of the wooden pallet.  I can only theorize that the heat from the April sun is warming up the pallet which in turn is melting the ice around it.  Could that ultimately lead to the end?  Stay tuned.

 

The second development is the fissure or channel in the ice that's slowly making its way towards the flag.  Continued sunshine is causing melted ice to drain off of the ice floe in the channels that were formed by the run off of last week's rain.

 

The forecast is calling for sunny skies over the next two days with temps in the upper 50's and lower 60's.  I'll be watching closely and will keep you posted as developments warrant.

 

Lastly, some of you may not have had a chance to see the article that appeared in the March 28th edition of the Daily Hampshire Gazette.  Click on this link if you'd care if you'd care to do some additional reading on the event.

 

Raffle prize will go with the floe - One half of 'Meltdown' proceeds will benefit Goshen anniversary

 

THINK SPRING!

 

Wednesday, April 6th, 2005

 

Sunny skies and temps in the lower 60's are starting to take their toll on the ice.

 

As you can see from the attached pictures, the ice in the northern part of the lake has begun melting as expected.  The southerly migration of the ice melt still has a ways to go before it reaches the block.

 

I'm noticing that the ice around the spillway has also started to melt.  It's either caused by the natural melting process or from the recent rainfall.  Regardless, the ice near the dam is still quite thick.  It'll take quite a few more sunny days before the water encroaches on the pallet.

 

The ice hasn't melted enough around the shoreline to allow wind to play a role yet.  I expect that will change within the next week.  Lastly, nighttime temps have been hovering around freezing.  I noticed still water with a small coating of ice this morning.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Sunday, April 3rd, 2005

 

Have I got some news for you!  Ice is still on the lake.

 

There was lots of activity this weekend.  Over the past three days all of Western Mass was under a flood watch as many areas of the hilltowns received upwards of 3” of rain.  Yesterday, the 2004 World Series Trophy won by our beloved Red Sox treated Goshenites to a visit.  Last night, we all moved our clocks ahead one hour.  Tonight, I sit at my computer watching the Red Sox and Yankees playing their opening game of the season in New York.  Even the Canadian geese are confused.  I received a call this afternoon from a neighbor that lives on the lake.  Even though he remembered the dates he picked for the ice to melt, the geese were not on the same calendar page.  He reported seeing them fly over the lake, spot water and attempt to land.  The problem is that the water on the lake sits atop a foot or so of ice.  Apparently, it was pretty funny site to see them slide as they attempted their crash landing only to stand around angrily honking with cold feet when they realized they were on perma ferma (my opinion of the condition of our lake).  Members of the Goshen Chamber of Commerce were not around to hear their complaints.

 

As for all that rain, the most noticeable impact it had on the ice was to raise it by several feet.  As you can see in the picture I took from our beach, the ice floe was lifted high enough by the floodwaters to dislodge the decking on our dock.  It’ll need a little TLC during our spring work party in May but that’s a story for another update.  With 8” of water going over the spillway, the first signs that the shore is releasing its grip on the ice are becoming evident.

 

 

 

 

So far, I’m fairly impressed with the accuracy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac.  Their long range forecast has been pretty close.  The Weather Channel is predicting an average high temp of 39 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 10 days and average low temps in the mid twenties.  While we didn’t have any measurable snow over the past week, there were snow flurries in the air today and more is forecasted for tomorrow.  The next full moon is Friday, March 25th.  Has anyone factored that into his or her guesses?  What happens if it snows on Friday?  Does that mean we’ll have 6 more weeks of winter?  What impact does the gravitational pull of the moon have on ice floes?  I’ll have to look and see if NASA has done any research on the subject and get back to you.

 

Ticket sales over the past week have exploded.  Those diehards I mentioned last week came through with a vengeance.  Now that ticket sales have officially come to a close for the 2005 Meltdown I am very happy to say that we’ve sold 910 tickets.   I was afraid to tell anyone other than my wife that my initial goal for ticket sales was 930 – which represents the population of Goshen.  Falling 20 tickets short leaves me room for improvement when next years Meltdown comes around.

 

Here are the final statistics (both new and old) for the 2005 Meltdown:

  • As of April 3rd, 17% or 157 picks have passed.  That leaves 83% or 753 picks still in the running.
  • Of the 910 tickets submitted, 484 are from men while 426 are from women – a ratio of 53% to 47%.  While women tried to mount a comeback, they fell short by 58 picks.
  • The ratio of AM to PM picks finished at 23% / 77% respectively.  Statistically speaking, the ratio of morning to evening picks between men and women was identical.
  • April 15th finished back on top with a total of 46 picks.  April 10th and 12th are tied for second place with 45 picks.  Fourth place is held by April 13th with 38 picks.   April 11th and 16th are tied for 5th place with 36 picks.
  • 3pm soared ahead of its closest competitor with 67 picks.  2pm finished in second place with 47 picks while 1pm is comes in third place with 30 picks.
  • There are 140 picks between 2:01PM and 2:59pm, 96 picks between 3:01PM and 3:59PM, 73 picks between 1:01PM and 1:59PM and 51 picks between 4:01PM and 4:59PM.  The winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over.
  • There is a 27% chance that you’ll be sharing your winnings with someone.  There are 70 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time; 30 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time; 2 times when 4 people have chosen the same date and time and 1 time when 6 people will share the prize if they win.  The most popular combination is April 15th at 2PM.
  • The 910 picks came from people in 43 cities or towns in 11 states and 2 countries (U.S. and India).

 

 

 

Finally, I have to admit that the pictures I sent out on Friday were not entirely accurate.  I apologize to those of you who I misled but it was, after all, April Fools Day.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Friday, April 1st, 2005

 

If you recall, a few updates ago I mentioned that it was the strength of the sun that plays a more important role in the melting of the ice than rain or high temperatures.  Well, as a result of 2 consecutive bright and sunny days, it appears that the 2005 Meltdown is coming to an end. 

 

The attached pictures were taken this morning.  As you can see, a very peculiar phenomenon seems to be occurring.  All the ice around the pallet seems to have melted.  One good breeze could spell the end to the contest.

 

 

 

How many of you took Daylight Savings into effect when making your picks?  What impact will the extra hour of sunshine every day have on the remaining ice floe?

 

Keep checking your e-mails.  I'll send out another update as soon as it's warranted.

 

As always, THINK SPRING.

 

Sunday, March 27th, 2005

 

What a difference a few days can make.

 

Thursday morning, we received 8” of fresh snow.  As you can see from the attached picture, that snowfall buried the block.  Most of the lower Pioneer Valley received only a few inches of the white stuff.  Fast-forward two days and most of that snow is gone.  For those of you unfortunate enough to live on a paved roadway, I have some news for you.  There is a direct correlation between sunny skies and temperatures in the 50’s and the depth of the mud on dirt roads in the hilltowns.  Just down the hill in Northampton this weekend, the Easter egg hunt at Look Park had to be postponed until next weekend due to soggy fields.  While spring has sprung, it certainly has arrived late.

 

 

 

 

 

I read with interest the story about two people that had to be rescued from Five Mile Pond in Springfield yesterday.  According to the Sunday Republican, the two ice fisherman needed to be rescued after falling through the ice about 60 feet from shore.  Luckily, they fell in waste deep water but had to be dragged to shore by a rope thrown out by emergency personnel.  The two had been fishing for about 45 minutes but decided to come in when they noticed the ice was “too mushy”.  Initially, they had decided the ice was thick enough because it held their weight when they repeatedly jumped on it.  I don’t intend to let that happen to me.

 

So far, I’m fairly impressed with the accuracy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac.  Their long range forecast has been pretty close.  The Weather Channel is predicting an average high temp of 39 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 10 days and average low temps in the mid twenties.  While we didn’t have any measurable snow over the past week, there were snow flurries in the air today and more is forecasted for tomorrow.  The next full moon is Friday, March 25th.  Has anyone factored that into his or her guesses?  What happens if it snows on Friday?  Does that mean we’ll have 6 more weeks of winter?  What impact does the gravitational pull of the moon have on ice floes?  I’ll have to look and see if NASA has done any research on the subject and get back to you.

 

Water flowing into the northern part of Hammond Pond is slowly starting to melt its way towards our block.  While the spillway still has approximately an inch of water flowing over it, I think we can expect that to change with the amount of rain we’re expecting tomorrow.

 

Ticket sales have slowed to a trickle.  I’m hoping that diehard Meltdown aficionados are waiting until the last minute to submit their picks.  Only 5 new entries were added to mix last week.  The count now stands at 530.  Thursday, March 31st is the last day of ticket sales.  I will accept tickets through the mail as long as the envelope was postmarked before April 1st.  Anything received after that time will be returned.

 

Here are the current factoids with a few new twists on the usual:

  • Of the 530 tickets submitted, 292 are from men while 238 are from women – a ratio of 55% to 45%.  Are the women out there really going to let the men beat them?  Hmmm…
  • April 15th has finally been knocked out of the top spot by April 10th, which now has 29 picks.  April 15th drops to second place with 28 picks followed by April 1st with 25 picks.  Third place is being held by April 1st with 24 picks with April 22nd a close 4th place with 22 picks.   April 13th and 16th are still tied for 5th place with 21 picks.
  • 3pm has stayed ahead of its closest competitor with 47 picks.  2pm remains in second place with 25 picks while 4pm is still in third place with 17 picks.  There are now 52 picks between 3:01pm and 3:59pm, 75 picks between 2:01pm and 2:59pm and 34 picks between 4:01pm and 4:59pm.  The winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over.
  • Not surprisingly, the number of duplicate entries continues to soar.  There are now 39 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time; 8 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time and still 2 times when 4 people will share the prize if they win.
  • The ratio of AM to PM picks changed slightly to 28% / 72%.  This ratio is identical regardless of gender.

An updated graph and pictures of the lake should be on the website by tomorrow.  Just point your browser to Goshen's official web site (http://www.egoshen.com).

 

Tickets are available at the Goshen Transfer Station, the Goshen Town Hall, the Goshen General Store, the Dresser's, the Florence Barbershop, online at the Goshen web site or by calling me at 413-268-7110.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Sunday, March 20th, 2005

 

Spring is here.  Only 93 days left until summer!

 

Songbirds fill the air with music.  Crocus and daffodils sprinkle color on their backdrop of melting snow.  The echoes of hoots from barred owls bounce off nearby hillsides.  The smell of boiling maple syrup glides along the wings of the gentle breezes while the sounds of bagpipes playing in the Holyoke St. Patrick’s Day parade can be heard on TV.

 

That’s enough of that hogwash.  In Goshen, it’s the beginning of mud season.  You know you live in the Hilltowns of Western Mass when you can’t tell what color your car is.  There is so much mud on it, passers by think you just went through a sippy hole at the local tractor pull.  The snow banks on my road are still over 3 feet high.  We had a visitor stop by the house last week asking if they could use the phone.  It seems he was asked to plow the driveway of a neighbor that was coming back from Florida on Easter Sunday.  Apparently, he was able to break through the bank on the edge of the road but got stuck when he took one swipe at the 2 feet of snow in the driveway itself.  For our neighbor’s sake, I hope it gets real warm in the next 7 days.  Otherwise, their car will get stuck in the mud I mentioned earlier.

 

So far, I’m fairly impressed with the accuracy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac.  Their long range forecast has been pretty close.  The Weather Channel is predicting an average high temp of 39 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 10 days and average low temps in the mid twenties.  While we didn’t have any measurable snow over the past week, there were snow flurries in the air today and more is forecasted for tomorrow.  The next full moon is Friday, March 25th.  Has anyone factored that into his or her guesses?  What happens if it snows on Friday?  Does that mean we’ll have 6 more weeks of winter?  What impact does the gravitational pull of the moon have on ice floes?  I’ll have to look and see if NASA has done any research on the subject and get back to you.

 

I checked out the status of the ice at the northern part of Hammond Pond.  The spring run-off coming in from Dead Brook is barely making its presence known.  As you can see from today’s pictures, we’ve lost approximately 5 inches of snow since last Sunday.  The spillway has an inch of water flowing over it - another good indication that it's still winter in the hilltowns.

.

Some of you may have heard rumors that the ice has started melting from the shores.  Trust me, that can’t be further from the truth (see attached pictures).  I think there are factions in town trying to unduly sway the votes of unsuspecting raffle ticket buyers.  The electricity is on in the gatehouse at the dam and the official clock is now plugged in and ticking.

 

We had another surge of ticket sales last week.  The current count stands at 525 tickets sold.  Once again, thanks to all of you that have participated so far.  Some of you might be receiving this update for the first time.  If so, it’s either because you recently purchased a ticket or a caring parent or significant other purchased one for you.  There are only 11 days remaining for your friends and co-workers to purchase tickets or get their stubs and donations in to me.  Please keep that in mind if you’re second-guessing your late March entry and want to increase your chances of winning.  Time is running out.

Here are the latest facts about the entries received thus far:

  • There is at least one pick on each day between now and May 2nd.
  • April 15th with 28 picks has squeezed out a lead over April 10th with 27 picks.  Third place is being held by April 1st with 24 picks with April 22nd a close 4th place with 22 picks.   April 13th and 16th are tied for 5th place with 21 picks.
  • One of my favorite picks to date was by a friend of mine who thought the ice would melt on April 11th at exactly 3:05pm – which, coincidently, it the same time the first pitch is scheduled to be thrown during Opening Day at Fenway Park in Boston.
  • 3pm has surged ahead of its closest competitor with 46 picks.  2pm is now a distant second with 24 picks while 4pm stays in third place with 17 picks.  There are now 41 picks between 3:01pm and 3:59pm, 96 picks between 2:01pm and 2:59pm and 32 picks between 4:01pm and 4:59pm.  The winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over.
  • Not surprisingly, the number of duplicate entries continues to soar.  There are now 49 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time; 11 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time and still only 1 time when 4 people will share the prize if they win.
  • The ratio of A.M. vs. P.M picks has once again changed slightly and is now 27% to 73% respectively.

An updated graph and pictures of the lake should be on the website by tomorrow.  Just point your browser to Goshen's official web site (http://www.egoshen.com).  The website was update last week and now includes a link to a satellite view of our lake as well as copies of previous e-mail updates for your reading pleasure.

 

Tickets are available at the Goshen Transfer Station, the Goshen Town Hall, the Goshen General Store, the Dresser's, the Florence Barbershop, online at the Goshen web site or by calling me at 413-268-7110.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Sunday, March 13th, 2005

 

Has anyone besides me noticed that since I started tracking the status of the lake a few months ago, the snow and ice have only gotten deeper and thicker?  With spring only 7 days away, it doesn't appear that the 2005 Meltdown has begun - at least on the surface anyway.

 

The long-range forecast was fairly accurate last week regarding average temperatures.  We received approximately 7" of wind driven snow last Tuesday and another 8" on Saturday.  The average high temperature for the next 5 days is projected to be a balmy 34 degrees Fahrenheit.  Looking ahead to the end of March, the Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting snow showers and cold temperatures through the 22nd then heavy rain in the last week of March.

 

In my quest to make this e-mail useful and even a bit entertaining, I've started to do some research on pond ice and have discovered the following interesting facts that determine its characteristics:

 

  • Chemistry of the water (Salt or Fresh) - clearly we have fresh water
  • Ice can change with the surrounding climate conditions. Temperature, precipitation (such as snow, sleet, rain), wind speed, ice age, water depth and water quality are all factors that affect ice strength and thickness - we've had lots of snow lately
  • The presence of currents such as at stream inflows / outflows, and along streams or rivers - there isn't much of a current down by the dam where the concrete block is situated. 
  • The presence of springs and the size and depth of the lake or pond - Hammond Pond does have many springs and the depth of the lake under the concrete block is approximately 15-20' deep. 
  • The distribution of the weight or load placed on the ice - the concrete block weighs 69 pounds. 
  • The signs of expansion cracks - can't see any because they're under the snow.

I've also learned that after ice has formed on a lake, snow cover acts as an insulating blanket that will soften some of the ice beneath it.  In addition, new ice is usually stronger than old ice. As ice ages, the bond between the crystals decays making it more dangerous and weaker even if melting has not occurred.

 

The first several months of winter in this section of the country could best be characterized as cold and snow less.  The last half of winter has had more seasonable temperatures with lots of snow.

 

When I went out on the lake yesterday to uncover the trigger rope from the snow, I noticed that the bottom of my footsteps filled in with water.  After I researched that phenomenon, I now understand that slush is a danger sign.  It indicates that ice is no longer freezing from the bottom and indicates weak or deteriorated ice.  Snow ice is any ice that forms from snow or slush freezing on the top surface.  It has a grain structure comprised of the ice granules from the original slush.  It contains a lot of air trapped between the ice gains.  How's that for technical?

 

Attached are two pictures of the lake that were taken just before sunset last night (see the picture on the 2005 Meltdown page).  You'll notice that our block is almost entirely buried in snow.  The picture taken from the northern part of the pond looking south shows that there continues to be little sign that any melting is taking place.

 

 

 

There was a surge of ticket sales last week.  We've now sold 426 tickets.  Thanks to all of you that have participated so far.  With tickets on sale only through the end of this month, please remind your friends and co-workers that time is running out.

 

Here are the latest facts about the entries received thus far:

 

  • While some of more recent entrants have chosen dates that are later in April and early May, the latest date anyone has chosen is still Wednesday, May 18th.
  • April 15th now shares top billing as the most popular date with April 10th and 21 picks each.  There is a tie for second place between April 16th and April 22nd with 20 picks each.  Clearly, many people think something will happen between the 15th and 16th.
  • 3PM continues to be the most popular time with 39 picks followed by 2pm with 18 picks and 4pm with 17 picks.  There are now 35 picks between 3:01pm and 3:59pm, 30 picks between 4:01pm and 4:59pm and 59 picks between 2:01pm and 2:59pm.  As I've said before, remember that the winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over. 
  • As you would expect with more entries, there are even more ties when it comes to people selecting the same date and time.  There are now 25 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time; 4 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time and 1 time when 4 people will share the prize if they win. 
  • The ratio of A.M. vs. P.M. picks has changed slightly and is now 28% to 72% respectively.

If you want to see updated graphs and pictures of the lake, point your browser to Goshen's official web site (http://www.egoshen.com).  I try to update them several times a week.  Also, thank you to those of you that have gone to the website and printed tickets from there.  I love technology when it works. 

 

Tickets are also available at the Goshen Transfer Station, the Goshen Town Hall, the Goshen General Store, the Dresser's, the Florence Barbershop or by calling me at 413-268-7110.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Monday, March 17th, 2005

 

With only 13 days before Spring, the 2005 Meltdown has yet to begin.

 

Attached are two pictures of the lake that were taken this morning (see the picture on the 2005 Meltdown page).  One is similar to the picture sent out last week.  The other is taken from the northern part of the pond looking south.  This view was added because the pond melts from north to south.  As you can see, there isn't much melting going on.

 

 

 

As expected, we received approximately 10" of snow last Tuesday and an additional 3" yesterday.  While folks in the southern part of the Pioneer Valley are starting to see daffodils and grass in their backyards, Goshen still has several feet of snow on the ground.  The projected average high temperature for the next 10 days is a balmy 30 degrees Fahrenheit.  While the forecast calls for rain tonight and temps in the 40's, another winter storm is being predicted for Friday into Saturday.

 

The Old Farmer's Almanac is saying that after a chilly start in the Northeast, April and May will be mild, with near-normal rainfall.  Late April to early May will be warm.

 

We're up to 346 tickets sold to date.  I'm still hopeful that I'll get swarmed with return by the March 31st deadline.

 

Here are a few updated facts about the entries received thus far:

  • Seeing that we've past the earliest date chosen (Thursday, March 3rd), the next earliest date is Tuesday, March 15th.  The latest date is still Wednesday, May 18th.
  • The most popular dates are 4/15 (19), 4/22 (18), 4/10 (18) and 4/16 (17) - only a minor change here from last week.
  • The most popular times are 3:00pm (32), 4:00pm (14) and 2:00pm (14).  There are still 29 picks between 3:01pm and 3:59pm, 27 picks between 4:01pm and 4:59pm and 53 picks between 2:01pm and 2:59pm.  Remember, the winner is the person who comes the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over. 
  • There are 19 times where 2 people have chosen the same date and time.  There are 2 times when 3 people have chosen the same date and time.
  • The majority of entries (74%) are for times after 12 Noon.

 

Keep in mind that the official Goshen web site is being updated with graphs and pictures (http://www.egoshen.com)/.  Tickets can also be printed from the web site and mailed to me with your donation.

 

Tickets are also available at the Goshen Transfer Station, the Goshen Town Hall, the Goshen General Store, the Dresser's and the Florence Barbershop or by calling me at 413-268-7110.

 

As always, THINK SPRING!

 

Sunday, February 27th, 2005

 

First of all, let me thank all of you for taking part in or showing an interest in the 2005 Meltdown.  Weekly updates will be sent out between now and when the event ends sometime before June.

 

 

 

Attached is a picture of the lake that was taken this afternoon (see the picture on the 2005 Meltdown page).  Thanks to some ice fishermen that were on the lake this morning, I can tell you that the ice in the immediate area around the concrete block is currently a mere 18" thick.  In addition, we are expecting a major winter storm tomorrow night into Tuesday.  Chances are good that the block will be smothered in snow the next time I send out an update.

 

As of today, 325 tickets have been sold out of 4,000 that have been distributed.  Hopefully, I'll get swarmed with returns by March 31st, the last day they will be accepted.

 

Here are a few interesting facts about the entries received thus far:

 

  • The earliest date chosen is next Thursday, March 3rd.  The latest date is Wednesday, May 18th (I plan to be swimming by then). 
  • The most popular dates are 4/15 (19), 4/22 (18), 4/10 (17) and 4/16 (17). 
  • The most popular times are 3:00pm (31), 4:00pm (14) and 2:00pm (12).  What's interesting to note, however, is that there are 29 picks between 3:01pm and 3:59pm, 26 picks between 4:01pm and 4:59pm and 52 picks between 2:01pm and 2:59pm.  Remember, the winner is the person who is the closest to the exact time that the clock stops without going over. 
  • The majority of entries (74%) are for times after 12 Noon. 

The official Goshen web site is now up and running (http://www.egoshen.com).  Follow the links to the 2005 Meltdown for additional information and pictures about the event.  Tickets can also be printed from the web site and mailed to me with your donation.  While you're there, take a look around and tell us what you think.  Send your comments to EJ Brennan - our Webmaster.  I'm sure he'd love to hear from you.

 

Tickets are also available at the Goshen Transfer Station, the Goshen Town Hall, the Goshen General Store and the Dresser's or by calling me at 413-268-7110.  Order before midnight tomorrow and receive my sincerest gratitude.

 

Remember, this is a fundraiser to benefit Goshen's 225th anniversary celebration in 2006.  Your support of the 2005 Meltdown will help with such events as the parade to be held on July 9th, 2006. 

 

Please help pass the word.

 

THINK SPRING!